Heat Pumps Outsold Gas Furnaces Again in 2025: What the Data Says
US heat pump shipments have exceeded gas furnace shipments for the third consecutive year. The technology shift is accelerating across all climate zones, not just mild climates.
For the third consecutive year, heat pump shipments in the United States exceeded gas furnace shipments, according to AHRI (Air Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute) data through Q1 2025. The gap is widening.
The Numbers
| Year | Heat Pump Units Shipped | Gas Furnace Units Shipped | |------|------------------------|--------------------------| | 2022 | 4.3 million | 4.0 million | | 2023 | 4.7 million | 3.9 million | | 2024 | 5.1 million | 3.6 million | | 2025 (Q1 annualized) | 5.4 million | 3.4 million |
The trend reversal from 30+ years of gas furnace dominance represents a genuine technology transition, not a temporary blip.
What's Driving the Shift
IRA incentives: The $2,000 25C tax credit for heat pumps has moved the needle significantly for new construction and whole-system replacements. In replacement scenarios, heat pumps now compete on installed cost with high-efficiency gas furnace + AC combinations.
Cold-climate performance: The persistent objection to heat pumps in northern states — "they don't work in cold weather" — has been definitively overcome by modern cold-climate heat pump technology. Mitsubishi Hyper-Heat, Bosch IDS, and Carrier Infinity systems operate effectively to -13°F, covering all but the most extreme conditions.
Gas line expansion slowdown: Many utilities have stopped extending gas distribution infrastructure in new development areas, effectively channeling new construction toward all-electric equipment.
Contractor training and confidence: The HVAC contractor base has rapidly upskilled on heat pump installation and service. Two years ago, finding a contractor with cold-climate heat pump expertise in Minnesota was challenging; today it's routine.
Regional Growth Leaders
New England leads in cold-climate adoption. Maine, Vermont, Massachusetts, and Connecticut have seen extraordinary heat pump growth driven by high heating oil prices, strong utility rebates (Mass Save's $10,000 heat pump rebate is the nation's most generous), and state policies.
The Southeast continues to lead in volume. Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, Tennessee, and Virginia represent the largest absolute volumes due to population size and highly favorable climate for heat pump performance.
Mountain West growing fastest percentage-wise. Colorado, Utah, and Idaho have seen the fastest percentage growth as cold-climate products have removed the performance barriers that previously limited adoption.
What This Means for Gas Furnace Owners
Homeowners with functioning gas furnaces: No action required. A well-maintained gas furnace runs 20+ years. The technology shift doesn't make gas obsolete — it changes the calculus for future decisions.
Homeowners facing equipment replacement: The financial case for heat pumps has never been stronger. In most markets, the combination of:
- $2,000 IRA 25C tax credit
- Utility rebates ($500–$1,500 in many areas)
- Single-system replacing two (AC + furnace → heat pump)
- 40–60% efficiency improvement vs. older gas systems
...makes heat pumps the economically superior choice for most whole-system replacements.
See our full comparison: Heat Pump vs Gas Furnace: Which Is Right for Your Home?